What narrative will emerge from ex-PM’s flight from justice?

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 09, 2017
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All imaginable questions of what, when, where and why poured forth on the matter of ex-PM Yingluck Shinawatra’s fleeing the country and missing the verdict in her malfeasance case.

Speculations can, and probably will, go on for some time yet, but the most important questions remain who benefited from Yingluck’s escape and when will she choose to finally emerge from hiding.
Yingluck’s actions leading up to the verdict date had been scrutinised by so many, including her own team, supporters, haters and intelligence officers. Yet she magically vanished shortly before August 25, when she was due to hear the court’s ruling on a case stemming from her government’s rice-pledging scheme.
She was last seen in Bangkok on August 23, when CCTV footage showed her lunching with 14 people of her team at the Shinawatra-run SC Park Hotel Bangkok after making merit at Wat Rakhang Khositaram.
Authorities on Friday made the first official confirmation that Yingluck was last seen in a sedan on CCTV at a military checkpoint in Sa Kaew, a border province to Cambodia, that same day. 
However, the vehicle’s movements were not captured by additional CCTV cameras, and so there is no proof that it had crossed the border into Cambodia.
It is widely believed that she fled overseas to her brother, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra. But then again, where?
The Shinawatras remain oddly silent, only posting social media messages encouraging their missing relative. Thaksin himself hasn’t even asked for justice or explained why Yingluck did not go to hear the final verdict.
The ruling government, meanwhile, has stressed progress of the investigation in vague terms. We’ve almost figured out how and in what way she escaped, police officers said. All still remains ambiguous. The military simply said they haven’t got anything on their hands.
How could they let the highest-profile person of the month escape? Did any of the powers-that-be “facilitate” the runaway? Even asking these questions has irked top-brass officers.
The Shinawatras are tight-lipped. The junta is reluctant to speak on this topic, but eager to discuss other issues. Despite this, they both can reap benefits from Yingluck’s absence from Thailand.
For the business-political clan, their beloved Yingluck won’t have to risk being jailed. While imprisonment could have turned her into an icon of democracy, that would be a second choice behind freedom.
The Shinawatras will pay a heavy price in the political arena, some say. However, Yingluck’s move overseas means that she can do as she wishes without being constrained by either the junta or by the fallout from the rice-pledging scheme.
If she chooses to seek political asylum, it would send out a message to the world how she was unfairly treated by Thai politics. Her tale could lead to more slamming of the junta by international leaders and bodies. Her domestic supporters will accept whatever explanations she gives for her flight. The junta could also benefit from her escape.
“Why not accept justice if you were not doing anything wrong?” they will publicly ask of Yingluck for a long time.
Whatever overseas actions the Shinawatras might take could backfire domestically by increasing political conflict within the nation, and leading to some arguing that a military dictatorship is a “necessity” to keep the Kingdom together.
PM General Prayut Chan-o-cha trailed Thaksin in popularity in a recent poll from King Prajadhipok’s institute, but that’s the least of the junta’s concerns. 
During their three years of rule, they have succeeded in rendering politicians as “obstacles” to national development in the public mind. International pressure may occur, but the junta have not been bothered by that since coup d’etat day. Information control and selective narratives are frequently fed to domestic audiences, lessening any likelihood of an uprising.
The more Yingluck stays silent, the more she will be attacked. September 27, when a verdict is scheduled to be read without her presence, could be the most appropriate moment for her to strike back.
It’s not hard for Yingluck, or anyone for that matter, to anticipate the verdict. She might take this opportunity to feed supporters with her own selective narrative to explain what happened, justifying why she thought it necessary to abandon her long-lasting fight for justice.
That opportunity is fleeting, and if it passes without comment, who knows when Yingluck will be powerful enough to counter again.