Thai property market seen rebounding in 2–3 years after passing its lowest point

Thailand’s property market may finally be emerging from its prolonged slump, with signs that conditions are shifting away from the bottom of the cycle, according to Sunthorn Sathaporn, President of the Housing Business Association, who spoke to Thansettakij.

He believes the industry has already brushed against its lowest point and is beginning to show more concrete signs of improvement, even though the overall outlook for this year remains clouded by multiple pressures—not least the drag from persistently high household debt, which continues to undermine purchasing power.

Sunthorn noted that the general market has remained subdued this year, with the condominium segment hit hardest by weakened demand and tighter access to mortgage lending. 

Low-rise projects still attract buyers, but they too are constrained by a “credit bottleneck”, where many genuinely interested households fail to secure loan approval due to unusually high household debt levels. As a result, demand that should materialise naturally is instead trapped within the system.

Rising travel costs—particularly the sharp increase in fares on several electric train routes, in some cases nearly doubling—have added a fresh strain on the key 2–3 million baht condo segment, which mainly serves salaried workers. 

An extra 2,000–3,000 baht in monthly transport costs effectively cuts their home-buying capacity by around 20%, reducing their chances of qualifying for a mortgage even further.

Meanwhile, the seemingly vibrant rental market is not being driven by lifestyle preferences but by necessity. 

Younger adults, facing volatile incomes and greater uncertainty about the future, increasingly view home ownership through a financial lens—often concluding that buying a property is “not worth the investment” compared with deploying their money elsewhere. Renting also offers flexibility that better fits an unpredictable way of life.

Despite this fragility, a notable turning point is emerging as household debt-to-GDP, which had climbed to exceptionally high levels, has begun to edge down—from 91% to around 90%, and more recently to roughly 88%. 

While the decline is modest, each one- or two-point drop helps ease pressure on the credit system and improves the prospects of loan approvals.

Developers, sensing the early stages of recovery, have resumed work on projects shelved over the past two years, both to replenish declining stock and to avoid missing the anticipated upswing. 

Stronger export performance in October, the return of tourists, and new investment—particularly Board of Investment-backed ventures and data centre projects—are also expected to support the sector’s rebound next year.

According to Sunthorn, analysts broadly agree that the property market will regain clearer momentum over the next 2–3 years. As the industry typically grows at roughly twice the pace of GDP, even a 1% expansion in the wider economy could translate into nearly 2% growth in real estate. 

Government financial measures will take time to filter through the system, likely requiring almost a year before their full effects are visible.

Businesses, however, continue to urge the government to accelerate relief for households. The most urgent mechanism—expected to move first—is the resolution of small-scale debt and debt consolidation, which currently excludes many families from the mortgage market. 

Progress here would directly reduce banks’ non-performing loan (NPL) burdens and create room for them to extend more housing credit.

The three major real estate associations are scheduled to meet Benjarong Suwankiri, Assistant to the Finance Minister, on November 20 to present what they consider “immediate solutions” to the current situation.

While many proposals will still require careful review and may not be approved by this administration, the private sector insists it will continue pushing for action.

In summary, while the market has yet to regain full speed, signs of recovery are becoming increasingly evident. Falling household debt, the resumption of new supply, and broader macroeconomic tailwinds may make next year the starting point of a new cycle for Thailand’s property sector. 

The key question now is how the government responds—and how quickly its measures can help accelerate the upturn.