Thai property experts warn of economic uncertainty amid US election
As the US presidential election on November 5 approaches, Thailand's property experts are weighing in on the potential impacts of the outcome on the global economy.
Pornarit Chounchaisit, president of the Thai Real Estate Association, expressed concerns that whether former Republican president Donald Trump or Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris emerges victorious, the results may not bode well for Asian countries, including Thailand.
Current polling data, as of Thursday, show Harris trailing Trump by just over 1%, highlighting the competitiveness of the race and suggesting that either candidate could take office.
"Should Harris win, the continuation of intense conflict in the Middle East is anticipated, following the same foreign policy framework as her predecessor,” Pornarit said. “This situation could lead to rises in fuel and transportation costs, adversely impacting construction expenses and possibly driving up house prices."
Conversely, he pointed out that a Trump victory would likely reignite trade tensions with China, which could lead to increased trade barriers and tariffs, further straining Thailand's economic landscape.
Nevertheless, some experts suggest that this scenario might benefit Thailand, as Chinese companies may shift production and investment to Thailand to mitigate their exposure.
Prasert Taedullayasatit, president of the Thai Condominium Association, reflected on the interconnectedness of the global economy, emphasising that local conditions must adapt to changes in major economies like the US.
"We should help ourselves first, rather than expecting the situation of the world to improve," he said.
Sunthorn Sathaporn, president of the Housing Business Association, highlighted the need for stability in global markets, suggesting that if ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly the war in Ukraine, can be resolved, it will greatly improve the situation globally.
The environmental policies of the two candidates present another area of divergence. Trump’s administration has been known for its disregard for environmental sustainability, unlike the Democrats, who prioritise climate-change initiatives.
This difference, he said, could have significant implications for global environmental policies. Experts also caution that if Trump reinstates his efforts to remove Thailand from the list of countries receiving tax benefits, it could hinder Thailand’s export capabilities and further complicate the nation's economic recovery.
Overall, all three agreed that Thailand must brace itself for the uncertainties that accompany the upcoming election and its aftermath.
