Thai economy shows resilience in Q3, positive outlook for 2024-2025

The Thai economy demonstrated sustained growth in the third quarter of 2024, expanding by 3.0% year on year, the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) told a press conference on Monday. 

This acceleration from the previous quarter's 2.2% growth is a positive indicator for the nation's economic trajectory, it said.

In the third quarter, several key economic drivers significantly contributed to growth. Public investment saw a noteworthy expansion, marking its first increase in six quarters, which reflects a revitalisation in government spending. 

Additionally, the export of goods and services continued to demonstrate favourable growth, fuelled by rising demand for Thai products in international markets. Government consumption expenditure also played a positive role in the overall economic performance, further bolstering the country’s economic outlook during this period.

Despite the resilience of the Thai economy, several sectors encountered notable challenges in the third quarter. Private consumption remained positive but exhibited a deceleration compared with the previous quarter, largely attributed to a slowdown in the purchases of durable goods. 

Furthermore, private investment experienced contraction for the second consecutive quarter, primarily driven by a decline in both equipment and construction investments. These factors indicate that while some areas of the economy are thriving, others are facing significant headwinds.
 

The NESDC has projected that the Thai economy will grow by 2.6% in 2024, driven by several key factors. These include heightened government consumption and investment, a rise in domestic private demand, the ongoing recovery of the tourism sector, and sustained growth in exports. 

Looking ahead to 2025, the outlook remains positive, with projected growth anticipated to range between 2.3% and 3.3%, centred on a midpoint of 2.8%. This continued growth is expected to be supported by increased total consumption, bolstered by rising private and government expenditure, an expansion in both private and public investment, as well as ongoing increases in the export value of goods.

According to Pornchai Thirawej, director of the Fiscal Policy Office, the Thai economy is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2024, maintaining the same forecast range of 2.2% to 3.2%, which follows 1.9% growth in 2023, primarily driven by the recovery in tourism and exports. 

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira expressed optimism, indicating that the economy could approach 3% growth this year and aspirations for at least 3.5% growth in the following year.
 

To strengthen Thailand's economy next year, the NESDC has outlined several strategic initiatives centred on key areas of growth and stability, including: 

• Driving Export Growth: Promoting high-potential products, expanding to new markets, and addressing trade barriers.
• Protecting Manufacturing Sector: Implementing measures to combat dumping and unfair trade practices, and improving regulatory oversight.
• Stimulating Private Investment: Enhancing investor confidence, expediting infrastructure projects, and creating a conducive business environment.
• Supporting Agriculture: Assisting farmers in adapting to climate change, promoting export-oriented production, and enhancing agricultural technology.
• Supporting SMEs: Providing financial assistance and facilitating access to funding for small and medium-sized enterprises facing challenges.

By effectively implementing these strategies, Thailand aims to sustain its economic growth and solidify its position as a regional economic powerhouse, the NESDC said.