Economy will grow less than expected, over 50% of 305 businesses say

President Narongsak Putthapornmongkol said on Wednesday that the chamber conducted a survey of 305 members from August 16 to 18 about their trust in Thailand’s economic direction in the fourth quarter.

Some 40 per cent felt the economy in the last quarter would be better than the previous one, 30.8 per cent said it would grow at the same rate and 26 per cent thought it would slow down.

The respondents were of the opinion that tourism, online, health services, agriculture, logistics, and processed agricultural products would drive the economy in quarter four.

They also felt the businesses that need to improve urgently are tourism, agriculture, energy and infrastructure, real estate and construction, and manufacturing.

Those surveyed see the tourism industry as a key opportunity for the Thai economy to recover quickly “if obstacles are overcome quickly”.

As for news that the economy would grow only up to 3.3 per cent this year, 56.7 per cent thought there was little chance of that happening, while 39.7 per cent said there was a high chance such growth could be achieved. The rest said it was impossible.

The respondents viewed recession, pressure from inflation, political stability and high household debt as the main obstacles to a recovery.

Some 33 per cent thought the world economy would see a slight recess, 25 per cent said it would significantly be affected, and a minority of 12.5 per cent felt that a crisis was brewing. Only 19.8 per cent of respondents believed the global economy would recover.

Meanwhile, 65 per cent of respondents thought Thailand’s policy interest rate would increase once again before the end of the year and pose a key obstacle to smooth economic growth.

Narongsak said 41.6 per cent felt a conflict between superpowers would hit the Thai economy, while 20.7 and 9.2 per cent thought it would affect Thailand seriously and very seriously, respectively.

Precisely 54.4 per cent still trust in exports to China in the current situation as Thailand is not a part of any conflict, while 31.5 per cent were highly confident China was a reliable export market for Thailand.

Around 80 per cent believe the number of Chinese tourists, if any, will be lower than expected in the fourth quarter.

Regarding Thai-Chinese economic ties, 40.7 per cent of respondents felt trade between the two countries in the last quarter would be better than in the previous quarter, 25.2 per cent said it would grow steadily and 31.5 per cent were of the view that it might slow down.

As for exports, 43.6 per cent of those surveyed expect China to import more Thai products.

According to the survey, 42 per cent of respondents thought Chinese investment in Thailand would increase, while 30.8 said it would remain the same as the third quarter.

Regarding the baht, 34 per cent expected the currency to strengthen in the fourth quarter, while 36 per cent said it would stay at the level between 35.59 and 36.90 to the US dollar.