EVs on roads worldwide expected to number 85 million in 2025
By the end of 2025, an estimated 85 million electric vehicles (EVs), including cars, buses, vans and heavy trucks, are expected to be on the road, according to the latest forecast from US-based research firm Gartner Inc released on Monday.
Jonathan Davenport, Gartner's senior analyst, said that despite several hurdles affecting the EV market over the past few months, the firm is projecting the number of EVs in use globally to total 64 million units in 2024 and increase by 33% in 2025.
“Many companies overestimated how quickly the switch to EVs would occur. This caused those companies to delay launching new EV models. The growth in 2025 will be driven primarily by higher EV sales in China (58%) and Europe (24%), which together are projected to represent 82% of total EVs in use worldwide,” he said.
The forecast indicates that globally, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in operation are expected to number almost 62 million units by the end of 2025, marking a 35% increase from 2024. Meanwhile, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are anticipated to experience slightly slower growth, reaching an installed base of 23 million units in 2025, up 28% from 2024.
In Thailand, more than 77,800 electric vehicles are projected to be on the roads by 2025, representing a 49% increase over 2024. Battery EVs are expected to comprise 74% of this figure, totalling over 57,900 units by the end of 2025.
Regionally, China's ownership of EVs is set to continue surpassing the combined installed base of the rest of the world through 2025, and likely into the next decade. Demand for EVs is steadily expected to grow in Europe and North America, with these regions projected to account for 36% of global EVs in 2024.
By 2025, Gartner estimates that 49 million EVs will be on the road in China, compared with 20.6 million in Europe and 10.4 million in North America.
With the expected rise in EV sales each year, addressing the shortage of raw materials poses a significant challenge.
“A robust recycling effort to take advantage of materials in spent batteries and scrap from the manufacturing production process, which, together with EU efforts to mandate battery recycling, could reduce the need for more mineral excavation,” Davenport noted.
He further explained, “Because concentrations of rare metals in batteries are higher than in natural ores, spent batteries can be seen as highly enriched ore. If recovered at large scale, spent batteries could support the overall commercial viability of EVs by bringing battery prices down."
“There would also be the additional benefit of preventing batteries from being disposed of in unethical manners or sent to landfill sites,” he added.
