Worse-than-expected NFP pulls down Thai baht
The baht opened at 33.90 to the US dollar on Monday, weakening from the previous closing rate of 33.85.
The Thai currency is likely to move between 33.85 and 34.00 during the day and between 33.50 and 34.00, Krungthai Bank market strategist Poon Panichpibool predicted.
Poon said that investors should speculate on the upcoming bond auction. Foreign investors will invest in Thai stocks if the demand was more than expected, which caused the baht to strengthen.
However, the baht will not strengthen soon because it was affected by many domestic factors such as floods and the Covid-19 situation.
Meanwhile, Poon said the dollar might weaken as the market opens for more risks which decrease the possession of the dollar as a safe-haven asset.
Moreover, the dollar might continue to weaken if the US Federal Reserve expressed its concern for economic recovery or does not decrease the quantitive easing (QE). The dollar’s momentum was supported by many risk factors such as stagflation or Evergrande’s crisis.
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Poon said that the baht almost weaken past the level of 34.00 to the dollar many times. He said that the weakening momentum might slow down in the short term.
The key resistance level for the baht would be at 34.00 to the dollar, which is the level at which exporters might sell the US currency.
The baht’s key support level would be from 33.60 to 33.70, the level some importers are waiting for so they can buy dollars, he added.
In the previous week, the market opened for more risks after it eased its worries about the US debt ceiling negotiation. The market is waiting for the Fed’s economic statement and QE decreasing policy this week after the lastest Nonfarm Payrolls was worse than expected.
