Rise in Thai export market reliant on supply of Covid-19 vaccine, value of baht
Thailand’s export market this year has been forecast to expand 3.6 per cent to US$237.2 billion provided the global economy and the economies of trading partners recover, said Aat Pisanwanich, director of the Centre for International Trade Studies at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
This forecast is also based on the scenario that up to 40 per cent of the world’s population is inoculated against Covid-19 and the vaccine is effective in preventing infections.
The other positive factor is that Thailand is now a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership – the world’s largest free-trade agreement.
However, if the vaccine supply fails to cover 40 per cent of the global population, then export could contract 0.8 per cent.
Risk factors this year include inadequate vaccine supply and further strengthening of the baht. It is estimated that a 1 per cent rise of the baht will shave 0.11 per cent off the value of exports. If the baht stays at Bt30 per US dollar, then it will bring the value of exports down by 0.5 per cent or by US$1.039 billion.
Other risk factors are a shortage of containers, which will boost the cost of exports by three to five times.
