Ten Northeast provinces at risk of severe drought in next 10 years
Forecast takes into account two greenhouse gas emission scenarios
Ten provinces in Thailand’s northeastern region are likely to experience severe drought over the next decade, according to drought trends forecast by the Climate Change and Environmental Department on Wednesday.
The forecast was based on two climate model scenarios: one assuming moderate greenhouse gas emissions and one with high emissions.
The moderate emissions scenario assumes greenhouse gas emissions in 2100 will be close to current levels, potentially raising the global average surface temperature by about 2.7 degrees Celsius between 2081 and 2100. The high emissions scenario assumes emissions will be double the current levels, potentially increasing the global average surface temperature by about 4.4°C.
According to the forecast, in the case of moderate greenhouse gas emissions, the following provinces will be the most affected:
Amnat Charoen
Maha Sarakham
Yasothon
Samut Prakan
Udon Thani
Khon Kaen
Nong Bua Lamphu
Roi Et
Sukhothai
Lopburi
In the case of high greenhouse gas emissions:
Nong Khai
Sakon Nakhon
Udon Thani
Bueng Kan
Maha Sarakham
Nakhon Phanom
Roi Et
Phuket
Lopburi
Nong Bua Lamphu
The department has proposed short- and long-term measures to address the issue.
Under short-term drought response measures, it has suggested:
● Monitor and prepare backup water sources, including planning for machinery and tools in at-risk areas.
● Implement effective water replenishment operations.
● Develop plans for water allocation and crop cultivation during dry seasons.
● Manage water resources according to the priorities set by the watershed committees.
● Improve water-use efficiency, conserve water, and reduce losses across all sectors.
● Monitor and address water quality.
● Strengthen community and user organisation water management.
● Raise public awareness through information campaigns.
● Track and evaluate operational effectiveness.
Long-term drought response measures:
● Conserve and restore forests and upstream ecosystems using nature-based solutions.
● Develop infrastructure such as reservoirs, small water sources, and non-irrigation groundwater sources.
● Develop water diversion systems and connectivity, including water distribution networks.
● Apply technology in water management.
● Enhance forecasting systems and water situation reporting mechanisms.
