Political battle heats up between Bhumjaithai, Pheu Thai stawarts
From here on, battle between ‘big boss’ Thaksin and ‘headmaster’ Newin should be closely watched
A political battle is intensifying as Newin Chidchob, the "headmaster" of the Bhumjaithai Party, confidently presses the remote control from Buri Ram, directing the “Blue MPs and Blue Senators” to vote in favour of the double-lock system for the referendum on amending the 2017 Constitution.
On the other side, Thaksin Shinawatra, the “big boss” of Pheu Thai, is playing the single-lock referendum game, relying on the majority of those who come out to vote, without considering the number of eligible voters. This makes it easier for his party to campaign for a constitutional amendment.
The signals of a clash between the “headmaster” and the “big boss”, caused several proposed laws from the government camp to face obstacles.
Thaksin made his displeasure with the coalition parties clear during a Pheu Thai seminar on December 13, despite Anutin Charnvirakul, deputy prime minister and minister of the interior, and leader of Bhumjaithai Party, insisting that the conflicts were minor and shouldn’t be taken seriously.
However, political insiders know well that within the Bhumjaithai Party, Anutin is not the real power – Newin is the one who commands every move.
Newin is an old adversary of Thaksin, who has long held a grudge after Newin led MPs to leave the People Power Party and join forces with Abhisit Vejjajiva to form a government in 2008.
During the government of General Prayut Chan-o-cha, Newin extended his political influence, attracting MPs from Pheu Thai to join Bhumjaithai, further stoking the flames of rivalry.
However, the results of the 2023 election did not allow Newin to continue with his old allies, forcing him to join the government with Pheu Thai. At the beginning of the Srettha Thavisin administration, Newin remained quiet.
The turning point came with the selection of the new 200 senators, where Newin took control of the game, enabling him to hold significant influence over the Senate.
After that, the political bargaining power of "Newin-Bhumjaithai" soared, leading to a confrontation with "Thaksin-Pheu Thai" as they blocked laws they disagreed with and negotiated policies that did not benefit the Bhumjaithai.
With Newin's arrogance and Thaksin's long-held grudge, coupled with the encouragement from his "henchmen", it has been speculated that "Newin-Bhumjaithai" may soon be pushed out of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s government.
When checking the current list of MPs in the House of Representatives, there are 493 votes, with the government camp holding 318 votes. This consists of 142 votes from Pheu Thai and 69 votes from Bhumjaithai.
If the "big boss" follows through with his threat and removes the 69 votes of Bhumjaithai, the government camp will be left with 249 votes.
On the other side, the opposition camp has 171 votes, However, if the Bhumjaithai MPs are pushed into the opposition camp, the number of opposition votes will rise to 244 (when considering that some individuals from the opposition might support the government, and some from the government camp may support the opposition).
Therefore, Thaksin would need to secure votes from the opposition to compensate.
The primary focus would be on the 20 MPs of the Palang Pracharath Party.
The mission to bring the 20 MPs from Palang Pracharath into the fold could likely be driven by Thammanat Promphao, who has a rapport with these MPs.
At the same time, attention must be paid to the movements of Suriya Jungrungreangkit, deputy prime minister and minister of transport, who has recently gained significant influence.
Scanning through the Bhumjaithai MPs, some are more inclined toward Suriya, such as the Changlao family in Khon Kaen, the Tansup family in Chaiyaphum, and many others who are unhappy with Nevin on certain issues, ready to say goodbye at any time.
From here on, the battle between "big boss" and the "headmaster" should be closely watched to see who holds the upper hand. Both sides possess significant resources, and when the time comes for a confrontation, a political turning point could happen sooner than expected.
