Paetongtarn’s popularity bodes ill for her political enemies
Opposition against ‘Thaksin regime’ apparently not enough to hinder PM’s upward momentum
It seems that the pressure surrounding Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s rise to the position of prime minister, coupled with the resurgence of opposition against the “Thaksin regime”, has not been enough to hinder the upward momentum of the second female prime minister from the Shinawatra family.
On Friday, a survey conducted by North Bangkok Poll named Paetongtarn Politician of the Year, a recognition that mirrors the results of a September survey by Line Today, which saw her climb dramatically from 11th place in August to the top spot.
Similarly, a September 29 survey by NIDA Poll highlighted Paetongtarn’s strong political standing, with 31.35% of respondents expressing support for her as prime minister. Respondents praised her leadership qualities and efforts to address public hardships.
Thepthai Senpong, a former MP, attributed Paetongtarn’s rising popularity to five key factors:
- A solid support base from “red shirt” voters who remain loyal to Thaksin.
- The transfer of support from Srettha Thavisin after he stepped down as prime minister.
- Paetongtarn’s prominent media presence, which has increased public familiarity and approval.
- The government’s policy of distributing 10,000 baht in cash to 14 million vulnerable and disabled citizens.
- The relative lack of competition from rival Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, whose role as leader of the People’s Party remains subdued.
Despite her success, Paetongtarn’s political rise is not without challenges. One of her biggest potential hurdles is her connection to her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister with significant influence over the ruling Pheu Thai Party. This father-daughter dynamic has made her a target for political opponents, who could exploit this connection to destabilise the government or even attempt to overthrow it.
One example is a petition filed by Teerayuth Suwannakesorn requesting that the Constitutional Court order Thaksin and the Pheu Thai Party to stop actions that allegedly undermine democracy. On November 22, the court dismissed the petition. Similarly, on December 18, another petition accusing key officials of improperly facilitating Thaksin’s transfer to the Police General Hospital to avoid prison was rejected.
These issues are still under investigation by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) and the Election Commission (EC), and their outcomes are eagerly awaited.
In addition, Sondhi Limthongkul’s group has stirred up controversy by linking Thaksin’s relationship with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen to the alleged loss of Thai territory to Cambodia. The accusations focus on a 2001 memorandum of understanding and claims of secret negotiations for mutual benefits. Thaksin has denied these allegations, stating that no agreements were made, and that canceling the MoU would have no impact.
Importantly, Sondhi has declared readiness to lead protests, reminiscent of the 2005 People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) movement that ousted Thaksin.
This poses a significant challenge for the Paetongtarn government. However, with her approval ratings remaining high, the critical question is whether these protests will gain momentum and where the crowds will come from.
