Is Boonsong’s release from prison a precursor to Yingluck’s return?

The news about the release of Boonsong Teriyapirom, former commerce minister sentenced to 48 years in prison for his role in the rice-pledging scheme, has reignited political debate. Having served seven years of his sentence, Boonsong, previously granted four royal pardons, qualified for "sentence suspension" and was released from prison on December 2 to be monitored at home.

This marks the second such case, following the quiet release in September 2024 of Phum Saraphon, former deputy commerce minister, who had served seven years of his 36-year sentence in the same case.

With key figures in the rice-pledging scandal being freed, speculation naturally shifts to the remaining individuals involved, in particular self-exiled former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who is another convict in the case. There have been signals of her potential return to Thailand. Her brother recently revealed plans for her to return home during Songkran in April 2025.

Rumours suggest ongoing negotiations with figures from the case to pave the way for Yingluck’s return. It began with the December 19, 2022, decision by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) not to pursue charges against the Shinawatra siblings — Yingluck, Thaksin, and their sister Yaowapa Wongsawat — despite allegations by Boonsong of secret discussions implicating the family in directing unlawful government-to-government (G2G) rice sales.

In February 2024, the Office of the Attorney-General returned the case files for the second phase of the G2G rice scandal, following the NACC findings implicating dozens of public officials and private sector individuals in wrongdoing.

Attention now focuses on whether the release of these former ministers signals a political deal to clear the way for Yingluck’s return. 

As of now, Yingluck still faces a five-year prison sentence issued in 2017 for failing to prevent financial losses in the rice scheme. The statute of limitations in her case has been paused due to her flight from justice, to be resumed only upon her return to Thailand and submission to legal proceedings.

In this political context, her rumoured return raises questions about whether a path has been quietly arranged for her return to the country.

There is speculation surrounding the potential use of the "Thaksin Model" to request a royal pardon for Yingluck. However, unlike Thaksin, Yingluck does not qualify for sentence suspension under the criteria of being over 70 years old and suffering from age-related illnesses.

This avenue could also play into the hands of opposition groups, who might seize the opportunity to challenge the government's stability.

Attention has also turned to the possibility of reopening the rice-pledging case, with arguments suggesting that Yingluck had attempted to mitigate potential damage by assigning Boonsong to investigate the matter. Reports indicate efforts to locate a key document — a written directive by Yingluck — to halt damage related to the scheme.

Signs of this strategy became evident when Phumtham Wechayachai, then commerce minister in Srettha Thavisin’s government, undertook a publicly viewed exercise of eating 10-year-old rice, to demonstrate that the stocks had not been damaged, clearing the way for Yingluck’s potential return to Thailand.

Another possible avenue is utilising provisions under the 2017 Corrections Act, which permit alternative forms of detention outside prisons. This approach is under close scrutiny as a potential mechanism for Yingluck’s return.

Additionally, the option of passing an amnesty bill has been floated but deemed less feasible. The legislative process would take at least a year, making it unlikely to align with the April 2025 timeline mentioned by Thaksin. Furthermore, amnesty proposals often exclude corruption cases, and pursuing this route could rekindle controversies reminiscent of the "blanket amnesty" bill passed by Yingluck’s government that ultimately led to protests and her fall from power.