Pheu Thai’s problems mount as Thaksin targeted amid coalition cracks
Ruling party faces uncertain future as government rifts grow and anti-Shinawatra movement gains momentum
Thailand’s political landscape looks set for upheaval as cracks appear in the ruling coalition and Thaksin Shinawatra becomes a focus of contention. The opposition People’s Party is poised to strike, while the yellow shirts are preparing to make a comeback.
Nearly three months into her administration, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has faced little political resistance. This is largely because members of her government have carefully shielded her from threats and risks.
In contrast, her father Thaksin remains an undeniable force overshadowing the Cabinet’s authority, despite holding no official post in government. His influence is so palpable that opponents have identified him as the government’s weak spot.
Thaksin’s grand homecoming after 15 years in self-exile ignited both admiration and animosity in Thailand. However, the political landscape had shifted, along with voters’ attitudes and choices. New alternatives, such as the progressive “Orange” People’s Party, have emerged.
The Orange camp has identified Thaksin as their true adversary, replacing the military-backed “Uncles” of the Prayut administration. The shift came after fiery criticism of the People’s Party by Thaksin prompted sharp counterattacks from "Orange" leaders.
The exchange of blows between the Orange camp and the Red patriarch has invigorated their supporters, breaking a long silence during which the opposition refrained from challenging the government directly. This silence had sparked rumours of a secret deal between "Orange" leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and Thaksin.
Mounting challenges for Thaksin and the Pheu Thai Party are becoming increasingly evident, undermining their political prospects both in the immediate and long-term future.
Yellow-shirt revival
Adding to this tension, Sondhi Limthongkul, the former yellow-shirt chief who led protests against Thaksin nearly two decades ago, appears to be spoiling for a rematch. Signs are emerging of a possible second wave of yellow shirt protests, with Thaksin as the main target.
Meanwhile, contentious government policies – particularly the controversial MOU44 on sharing benefits in disputed maritime territories with Cambodia – are being watched carefully as they simmer to a potential boiling point.
The Khao Kradong land dispute, seen as a battleground between coalition partners Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai, has become prime fuel for Sondhi to rally his protest movement. Joining the fray is the People’s Party, which is using parliamentary panels on land and military affairs to stoke opposition against those in power.
Coalition tensions
The government’s real vulnerability, however, lies within itself. Conflicts among coalition partners over issues like Khao Kradong and casino legalisation have created openings for its opponents to exploit.
Under Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga’s leadership, energy policies have encountered significant hurdles, clashing with the interests of powerful party sponsors within the government. Internal divisions and competing agendas now threaten to disrupt unity.
In the short term, the government must contain Sondhi’s protests to prevent them from merging with anti-Thaksin factions. Yet, with Thaksin’s bold and unwavering approach, the situation may escalate over time.
Nattawut Saikua, Paetongtarn's adviser, has stated that Pheu Thai’s coalition government is a product of circumstance rather than shared ideology – a view that likely aligns with Thaksin’s own perception. As such, Thaksin’s ambitious target of securing over 200 MPs in the 2027 election may face significant challenges.
Pheu Thai faces battles on two main fronts – against Bhumjaithai and the People's Party. However, Thaksin’s confidence in surpassing the 200-MP mark could stem from lessons learned during the 2023 election.
But other parties are busy recalibrating their strategies, aiming to compete on the same playing field.
While the government is likely to complete its term given its parliamentary majority, its ability to remain unscathed is in doubt. The critical question is whether it will limp towards the next election battered and bruised or remain relatively intact.
Past elections have shown that even seemingly dominant parties can suffer a backlash from voters. As for Pheu Thai, whether it will grow stronger or see its MP count decline remains uncertain. The next election will provide the answers.
