Meeting between Thaksin and Newin marks a major political realignment

The meeting between former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and Bhumjaithai Party mentor Newin Chidchob marks truce and reconciliation of two former allies who had a bitter falling-out.

From the famous phrase "It's over, Sir" during Newin’s walkout over a decade ago, it has now changed to a conciliatory "Let's start again, Sir."

Once close allies, their relationship was shattered when Newin dumped Thaksin by leading his faction, "Friends of Newin", from the People’s Power Party to join forces with the Democrat Party led by Abhisit Vejjajiva in late 2007 to form a coalition government. Thaksin saw Newin’s action as a betrayal and they had been political foes since then.

However, following the 2023 election, when Pheu Thai lost to the rising Orange Wave, they had to turn to the support of the 3Ps ( Prawit Wongsuwon, Prayut Chan-o-cha and Pok Anupong Paojinda) coalition bloc to achieve their key objective of bringing Thaksin back home. This led to the rekindling of political ties between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai.

Now, with Thaksin joining forces with Newin, the Paetongtarn Shinawatra-led government will become significantly stronger.

In the face of fierce opposition attacks, Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai must solidify their alliance to ensure stability.

The Paetongtarn government, a 15-party coalition, has 325 seats in Parliament. Pheu Thai holds 141 seats and Bhumjaithai 70, forming the core of this alliance. If these two parties remain firm, it will be difficult for the opposition to topple them.

Thaksin's influence lies within the lower house, where Pheu Thai can control the MPs and direct the government’s policies. This allows them to command civil servants to implement their agenda.

Newin’s power extends beyond Bhumjaithai’s 70 MPs, as he is believed to control around 150 senators in the upper house. This network empowers Newin to manoeuvre and establish influence within independent institutions.

Furthermore, with party leader Anutin Charnvirakul, who is deputy prime minister and minister of the Interior, overseeing local administrative mechanisms, Newin and Bhumjaithai’s strength continues to grow.

Amending the 2017 Constitution

The key discussions between Thaksin and Newin revolved around three main issues.

There was a strong emphasis on the need to amend the 2017 Constitution, as it was a core campaign promise of the Pheu Thai Party. One of Pheu Thai's primary missions is to ensure that the process of constitutional reform or the drafting of a new constitution proceeds. It's crucial to demonstrate to the public that the party is seriously pushing for this.

The first hurdle to overcome is the amendment of the referendum law. The current "double-lock" requirement states that more than half of eligible voters must participate, and more than half of those participants must approve the referendum. The goal is to reduce it to a "single-lock" system, where only more than half of those who participate in the referendum need to approve it.

If the referendum law can be amended to a single-lock system, the chances of passing a referendum will increase, as will the likelihood of establishing a Constitutional Drafting Assembly to revise the 2017 Constitution.

Recently, 65 Bhumjaithai MPs abstained from voting, going against the Senate's resolution.

The second issue is amnesty. In principle Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai agree that protesters who committed minor, non-violent offences, which did not endanger life or physical safety, should be granted amnesty.

However, when it comes to those convicted under Article 112 (the lèse-majesté law) of the criminal code, there will be no blanket amnesty. There may be provisions to appoint a committee to review individual cases.

The third issue pertains to government policies under Paetongtarn Shinawatra's leadership. Specifically, new policies that may be pursued will need to be negotiated to ensure mutual benefit.

The main focus is on the proposed entertainment complex (casino) project. Newin is determined to have Buri Ram province selected as one of the locations for a casino. Previously, there were reports that Thaksin had not approved the project. Therefore, it would be interesting to see if Buri Ram is chosen as the venue for a casino following the meeting of the two.

This is the backdrop of the meeting between Thaksin and Newin.
 
In politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies. When political interests align, foes can become friends. However, if conflicts of interest arise in the future, these friendships can easily turn back into rivalries.