Pheu Thai halts amnesty push as Constitution, Senate hurdles loom

The Pheu Thai Party has hit pause on its push for an Amnesty Bill, mindful that opposition from the Senate could jeopardise the stability of its fragile government coalition. The ruling party has also slowed efforts to amend constitutional provisions on the ethical standards and qualifications of political officeholders and postponed the release of a report on the feasibility of an Amnesty Act.

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s government holds a slim majority in Parliament, making it cautious of the Senate’s power to block attempts to amend the 2017 Constitution. Written by the NCPO junta, the Constitution is fortified by laws that make any changes extremely challenging. Among them is the requirement for a public referendum to even begin the process of constitutional reform. This referendum demands a rare double majority: a voter turnout of at least 50% of eligible voters, and over 50% approval for any proposed change.

Further complicating matters is the need for one-third of the Senate – 67 out of 200 senators – to support constitutional amendments. These high barriers make passing significant reforms, like the proposed constitutional changes, an uphill battle.

The hurdles extend to Pheu Thai’s planned Amnesty Bill as well. If key Senate factions oppose the bill, which has political implications, it risks being sidelined, despite its significance.

Nevertheless, Pheu Thai holds a distinct advantage in the lower House. Its 142 government MPs are bolstered by 25 additional lawmakers from General Thamanat Prompao’s faction. Furthermore, it has crucial backing for constitutional reform from the opposition People’s Party, which holds 143 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives.

Thus, if Pheu Thai chooses a non-confrontational approach with the Senate and its coalition partners, it may avoid political pitfalls. The party recognises that by pursuing a more cautious strategy, it still holds a stronger hand, ensuring government stability and keeping an upper hand over rivals, particularly the People’s Party.

Meanwhile, leaders of the People’s Party are pushing for a new constitution and rallying support through citizen networks. Yet, despite Pheu Thai’s slower approach to legislative change, the party has not suffered any setbacks. On the contrary, the stability it maintains may allow the government to extend its tenure, boost its public image, and gain more support based on its achievements.

Pheu Thai is aware of the restrictions on its powers contained in the 2017 Constitution, but it remains unfazed by the challenges that lie ahead.