Pheu Thai’s success in by-election a reflection of coalition’s unity
Support for Jadet Chantra reinforced by smaller parties agreeing not to field candidates in Phitsanulok
The battle between the Pheu Thai Party and the People's Party at the by-election in Phitsanulok on Sunday demonstrated how a strong political wave struggles to compete with well-organised “Big House” politics.
Pheu Thai’s candidate Jadet Chantra from Pheu Thai beat the People’s Party Nattachanon Chanaburanasak, who was representing Padipat Suntiphada, a two-time incumbent, highlighting the successful strategy of “United we win, divided we lose”, employed by the coalition parties to counter the so-called “Orange Wave”.
The model used in the Ratchaburi Provincial Administrative Organization (PAO) election was applied to the Phitsanulok by-election. When coalition parties refrain from fielding candidates, the vote pool isn’t split, leaving the People's Party at a significant disadvantage.
Moreover, prominent figures like Somsak Thepsuthin, Public Health Minister and director of the by-election, teamed up with former Tourism Minister Sermsak Pongpanich—a Phitsanulok native—and his wife to campaign daily for Jadet.
Leading the charge and adding strength to the Pheu Thai campaign was the team led by Monchai Wiwatthanath, the incoming president of the Phitsanulok Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) with behind-the-scenes support from coalition members of the United Thai Nation Party and the Thamanat Group.
That said, the People’s Party and the “Orange Team” must acknowledge that by-elections and local elections are still difficult to win against the well-established “Big House” network.
A major challenge in local elections and by-elections is the absence of early voting and overseas voting—both of which are crucial voter bases for the Orange Party.
The absence of early voting particularly affects young voters living in Bangkok and other provinces, who are unable to return home to vote, resulting in a significant loss of votes for the People's Party.
Key figures from the People’s Party campaigned to encourage as many voters as possible to cast their ballots, knowing that low voter turnout would immediately favour their opponents’ vote management strategies.
Importantly, the People’s Party key figures, both in the spotlight and behind the scenes, may need to reassess Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut’s popularity. Since he took over from Pita Limjaroenrat, Natthaphong’s appeal has not yet risen to Pita’s level. While the Orange Wave has not drastically declined, if the leader fails to reach peak popularity, long-term challenges are inevitable.
Additionally, the People's Party faces a significant hurdle in the potential consolidation of the government bloc. If a political alliance is formed, similar to when former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra unified multiple parties under Thai Rak Thai, it will make the People’s Party's chances of winning future elections even more difficult.
