Has Prawit’s scheming to become PM reached its end-game?

The release of an audio clip sounding like General Prawit Wongsuwan, leader of the Palang Pracharath Party, stating that he dreams of becoming prime minister at least once, appears to confirm long-held rumours that the general does indeed aspire for the position. And therefore, the rumours that he masterminded the operation to oust Srettha Thavisin in order to fulfill his own dream does not seem like baseless gossip.

There are also reports that Prawit intends to overthrow PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra. If successful, he would then aim to remove Anutin Charnvirakul, the Bhumjaithai PM candidate, from the race as well.

At this moment, Prawit is surrounded by operations aiming to prevent him from consolidating power and executing his plan to unseat Paetongtarn.

An analysis of the offensive strategy that Prawit faces reveals four major challenges:

The first challenge focuses on the Palang Pracharath Party, Prawit's political stronghold. Since the rebellion by former party secretary Thammanat Prompao, led by 20 MPs, to support Paetongtarn, Prawit's and Palang Pracharath's political bargaining power has weakened.

Though the party still holds 20 seats in Parliament, being pushed to the opposition camp has led Prawit's loyalist MPs, especially the "Big House" faction within the party, to reconsider their political standing, with many preferring to align with the government.

The second challenge relates to Prawit's political command base at the Five Provinces Bordering Forest Preservation Foundation, commonly referred to as "Baan Pa."

There are speculations that Prawit may be forced out of the location at the 1st Infantry Regiment. 

The area falls under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Finance because the Royal Thai Army allocated the land for beneficial use, transferring it to be leased under a contract with the Treasury Department.

Currently, the foundation has a lease agreement with the Treasury Department, paying 120 baht per year for a three-year term until the Royal Thai Army requests the return of the area for some form of use.

If anyone intends to evict Prawit, they would need to leverage mechanisms at the Royal Thai Army. However, given the military camaraderie, forcing such a move politically could be difficult.

The third challenge involves Prawit's role as president of the National Olympic Committee of Thailand, a position he has held for two consecutive terms since 2017. His current term expires in April 2025.

There are reports of efforts to remove him from the post, citing Thailand's disqualification by the Olympic Council of Asia from hosting the 6th Asian Indoor and Martial Arts Games, which were initially set to take place in Bangkok and Chonburi from November 21-30.

Rumours suggest that an influential woman within sports associations, who once had a good relationship with Prawit, now aims to build her own empire and replace him as the Olympic committee president.

The fourth challenge involves the independent organisations that have been aligned with Prawit since the National Council for Peace and Order era. Appointments and selections of new office holders in these organisations are underway to replace those whose terms are expiring.

It is undeniable that several independent organisations were used for covert operations, with many crucial matters believed to have been orchestrated by Prawit's network.

These are the early stages of operations to drive "Prawit and the Baan Pa team" out of the political arena in this era.