US government pushes Thailand to consider purchasing F16 fighters

With Thailand soon to gradually retire its ageing fleet of US-made F-16 fighter jets, the Royal Thai Airforce (RTAF) in in the process of selecting a new fighter jet model for procurement in the 2025 fiscal year budget. The decision, now in its final stages, is between two contenders that meet the requirements: Sweden's Gripen E/F from SAAB and the US's F-16 Block 70 from Lockheed Martin.

The US would obviously like to land the order, with the US Ambassador Robert F Godec, sending a letter to PM Srettha Thavisin, urging him to consider purchasing the F-16 Block 70 jets, citing their suitability for the capabilities of the Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF).

If the US F-16 is not chosen, it will impact the geopolitical strategy in Southeast Asia, where the US is vying with China for influence. The competition will be further underlined when Thailand takes delivery of its first Chinese submarine. Although Defence Minister Sutin Klungsang has yet to bring the issue of China's submarine contract amendment to the Cabinet for engine modification approval and time extension, it's believed that the submarine will arrive in Thailand by 2027.

In terms of air defences, the fleet of F-16s currently in service is slated to be phased out by 2028. Were Thailand to opt to purchase the Gripen fighters to add to the 12 it purchased some years ago, the balance of military equipment in Thailand would shift away from the US, with the ratio of US to non-US equipment going from 1:1 to 2:1, and eventually to 3:1 or 4:1.

From a political perspective, the US ambassador's meetings with Sutin and the letter to PM Srettha are clearly aimed at influencing the RTAF's fighter jet selection in favour of US interests. However, legally, the RTAF has the authority to choose based on its own operational needs and budget constraints.

The RTAF is focused on selecting a fighter jet that balances quality and cost, given the limited budget. They aim to choose a model that meets their needs within the budget constraints, without compromising on performance.

Link, the Tactical Data Link system that integrates military hardware across all three armed forces worldwide, is a significant consideration in the budget discussions for fiscal 2025. Even though the Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) currently has F-16s stationed at various bases, they lack the Link-16 system and technology transfer. If the US does not supply parts and technicians for maintenance, the F-16s cannot be deployed for missions.
It's often said that while the RTAF has F-16s, they lack true ownership since everything is under US control. Every use of the Link system requires US permission and passwords.

However, according to Sutin, the US has proposed new offers, including loans for the entire project and technology transfer for maintenance according to RTAF needs.

“We are in talks, and the US ambassador has assured us that the systems can be connected. He emphasised that their link systems can integrate with the RTAF's existing aircraft, touting them as modern and superior to other models,” said Sutin.

Even though the US is not overtly pressuring the Thai government, the diplomatic approach means Thailand must respond clearly, whether they accept, decline, or find a middle ground. This is a significant challenge for PM Srettha.

Although the RTAF has the authority to select the fighter jet model, political and economic considerations, including potential US benefits to Thailand, could influence the decision. However, external pressure could complicate the selection process, impacting the RTAF's operational priorities.

It's likely that PM Srettha will find a solution that benefits all parties, maintaining long-standing international relationships while ensuring the RTAF acquires suitable fighter jets.

However, only if the US offers the Link-16 system independently and significantly reduces the F-16 Block 70's price, might they outshine the competition.