Pheu Thai and People’s Party play their trump cards in Udon Thani election

It quickly became a hot political topic after Thaksin Shinawatra and Pita Limjaroenrat, the “spiritual leaders” of the two political factions — the government and the opposition — announced plans to visit Udon Thani to campaign for the candidates running for president of Udon Thani Provincial Administration Organization (PAO).

Both are eager to seize control of the "red shirt" stronghold, which is considered a key strategy in the northeastern region. It is well-known that the Pheu Thai Party has held a strong grip over this area at both the local and national levels. However, in the May 14, 2023 general election, Pheu Thai suffered some setbacks, losing control of some cities: the Move Forward Party secured one seat and the Thai Sang Thai Party won two seats. This result immediately drew the attention of the former Move Forward Party, now the People's Party, to focus on the Udon Thani PAO election, with high expectations.

According to the schedule, Thaksin will campaign for Sarawut Phetphanomphorn, the Pheu Thai candidate for Udon Thani PAO, on November 13-14, while Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of the Progressive Movement, is expected to join speeches supporting Kanitsorn Kurirang from November 15-17, before the election on November 24. He will arrive from the United States specifically for this campaign event.

Meanwhile, members and campaign helpers from the People's Party, including Progressive Movement leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, People's Party leader Nattaphong Rueangpanyawut, People's Party deputy leader Sirikanya Tansakul and Wiroj Lakkhanaadisorn, will continuously campaign taking turns across the area.

It's important, however, to note that Sarawut has more political experience, while Kanitsorn seems to be a "novice", which aligns with the People Party's intention to develop new political fighters.
With regard to the election itself, Udon Thani’s PAO election will cover 1,258,454 eligible voters aged 18 and above, across 20 districts with 42 constituencies. 

Given the vast scale of this election, one important factor that could influence the outcome is the number of MPs with a stronghold in the area. The results from the 2023 general election showed that Pheu Thai won in 7 constituencies, Thai Sang Thai in 2, and Move Forward in 1.

What’s even more interesting is that the two seats won by the Thai Sang Thai Party seem to strongly favour the government, even though the party is still in opposition.

If we analyse the recent trends, it is true that in some urban districts, particularly around educational institutions and universities, the People's Party has an advantage, thanks to the rising wave of "young people". This is not the case everywhere, because Udon Thani is still a "red shirt" stronghold, with Pheu Thai being the most popular choice. This has restricted Move Forward’s gains to only one seat.

Currently, however, the "young people" trend is starting to fade. After the dissolution of the Move Forward Party and executive committee members being banned from politics for 10 years, only a few influential figures remain in the party. The new leader of the People’s Party has yet to build a strong personal and party-wide following, causing the party’s popularity to decline, as reflected in some polls. It remains uncertain whether the enthusiasm for Move Forward will carry over to the People's Party, and if so to what extent.

In contrast, Pheu Thai holds a significant advantage as the ruling party, able to push forward its "flagship" policies, such as the 10,000 baht digital wallet initiative to stimulate the economy. This has directly benefited millions of vulnerable people, and with Phase 2 on the way, the popularity of the party’s economic measures is undeniable.

In the end, the campaigning by Thaksin and Pita will be a battle of "experience" versus "freshness".

Thaksin has chosen to target specific groups with his strategy to gain votes, as seen in his planned campaign schedule. On the other hand, Pita is opting to use large-scale speeches in the final stretch to draw attention and capitalise on his "heroic" political image to gain popularity. If this had been before or after the 2023 general election, Pita's efforts to use his "freshness" to overshadow Thaksin's "experience" would have likely been effective. But now it’s a matter of how things unfold after the election.

Analysing the advantages and disadvantages, a loss for Pheu Thai would mean the Pita “wave” is still strong enough to carry the day.

Without a Pita wave, it seems unlikely that the opposition will find a way to defeat Pheu Thai, no matter from which angle you look at it.