Myanmar and Thailand at the Crossroads

Introduction

Thailand and Myanmar are two neighbouring countries with deep historical and cultural ties. Through the years, the bond between the two countries has become increasingly evident in the areas of politics, economics, as well as society and culture. For instance, it is estimated that there are over four million legal and illegal workers and migrants from Myanmar in Thailand. In the meantime, the value of border trade between the two countries has registered at a height of over 100 billion baht (USD 2.9 billion) in 2022.

Currently, Myanmar is grappling with significant political and social unrest, which has had a profound impact on the region, especially Thailand. This has led the Center for Strategic Policy (CSP) to initiate a comprehensive examination of the situation to better understand its dynamics and the magnitude of its impacts on Thailand and the Southeast Asian region and beyond. To be able to arrive at an accurate assessment of the situation, CSP’s work attempts to cover all dimensions of the relationship between the two countries, and map out all stakeholders, both at the national and regional levels - government, business, civil society organizations and public sectors. The research takes into account the “stakes” of each of the players and their possible policy and strategic response.

CSP completed the draft study in late November 2024 and plans to officially submit the final version of its work to policy-makers and, thereafter, all relevant stakeholders, in mid-December 2024, following a presentation and a “closed door” Roundtable discussion on the paper.

Significance of the Study

Myanmar has been in a state of turmoil since the military coup in February 2021. The war-like situation in the country has led to widespread displacement of civilians, urgent and increasing need for humanitarian assistance, disruption of trade and commercial activities, as well as, the deteriorating quality of life of the overall population.

The prolonged situation has also weakened the country politically and economically and has placed the overall statehood and the country’s relationship with other countries, both within and outside of the region, at a precarious crossroads. The implications of such developments on Myanmar’s diplomatic relations with all regional players, as well as the overall dynamics of geopolitics in the Southeast Asia region, have been significantly affected and will, to a considerable extent, influence the immediate future of Myanmar and the region.

In particular, this situation has had a ripple effect in all dimensions on neighbouring countries, especially Thailand, which shares a porous border with Myanmar. For instance, there are now nine holding centres in four provinces of Thailand housing over 100,000 displaced persons from Myanmar. Most of these holding centres have been in operation for over thirty years, and the camp population fluctuates based on the political and military situation in the country. At certain periods, the camp population reached a height of over 500,000 displaced persons, posing an onerous burden on Thailand and indicating the seriousness of the dire situation in Myanmar.

For ASEAN, the situation in Myanmar has, yet again, put the concepts of “ASEAN Centrality” and “non-interference” in internal affairs, to a test. Critiques are questioning the ability of ASEAN member states to effectively resolve their political emergencies. This is especially the case when the so-called “Five-Point Consensus” (FPC) peace plan for Myanmar, adopted by the ASEAN leaders in April 2021, has yet to make any substantial breakthrough.

Objectives of the Roundtable Discussion

CSP’s Strategic Policy Recommendations and the Roundtable “Myanmar and Thailand at the Crossroads” will be the inaugural session of the “CSP Roundtable Series”, which, henceforth, will be held on a regular basis.

The objective of this upcoming Roundtable on Myanmar-Thailand relations is to critique and collect additional comments on the research work conducted by CSP, focusing on:

●the current political, economic, and social situation in Myanmar and its impact on Thailand
●the implications of the Myanmar crisis on regional security and stability
●potential risks and opportunities for Thailand arising from the situation in Myanmar
●improve practical policy recommendations for the Thai government to address the Myanmar crisis and its impact on Thailand
●foster dialogue and collaboration among experts, policymakers, and civil society organizations to find common ground and promote peaceful solutions for Myanmar

Proposed Discussion Topics

1. Political & Security Dimension:

The Impact of the military coup on Thailand-Myanmar Bilateral Relations
Thailand's role in efforts to mediate and seek peaceful solutions
The potential for increased cross-border tensions and conflicts
The role of Regional Powers in finding peaceful solutions

2. Economic Relations:

The current economic situation in Myanmar and its impact on the population, especially the impact of “sanctions” from the US and European countries
Impact on trade and investment with Thailand
The Challenges and opportunities for cross-border Economic Cooperation
The Role of illicit economies and transnational crime in the Region

3. Social and Humanitarian Issues:

The influx of displaced persons and asylum seekers from Myanmar into Thailand and its impact on Thailand and the region
The humanitarian crisis in Myanmar and the response from Thailand and the international community
The impact of the relationship between the government and ethnic minorities and the likelihood of finding peaceful solutions
The influx of displaced persons and asylum seekers from Myanmar into Thailand and its impact on Thailand and the region

Expected Outcomes

●A deeper understanding of the complex dynamics of the Thailand-Myanmar relationship
●A shared assessment of the risks and opportunities for Thailand – Myanmar relations
●A set of concrete policy recommendations and priorities for the Thai government to address the crisis and promote peace and stability in Myanmar
●Increased awareness and ability to find a common approach among Thai policymakers, businesses, civil society, and the general public, in dealing with the situation in Myanmar
●Increased cooperation between Thailand, Myanmar, ASEAN and regional powers in finding a speedy and peaceful solution to the situation in Myanmar.
Format of the Roundtable Discussion

The Roundtable will be a closed-door, on-site-only, event. Panelists will include representatives from CSP and invited experts on Myanmar and the ASEAN region. Participants will be selected representatives from government agencies, private sector, academic and civil society. The Roundtable will be followed by an open Q&A session. Overall, the total number of participants will be 80-100 people.

Time & Venue

The event is scheduled to take place on Monday 16 December 2024, between 1330 and 1630 hours, at The Sukosol Hotel, Sri Ayudhya Road, Bangkok.

Conclusion

This Strategic Policy Recommendations cum Roundtable Discussion is considered to be the first of its kind in Thailand’s academic think-tank community, to have an in-depth discussion on issues of national and regional concern, based on a well-researched policy recommendation paper, to finalize the practical and actionable Policy Recommendation Paper for submission to and consideration by the Thai Government.

CSP Roundtable Series is designed as an exclusive platform for experts, policymakers and key stakeholders to exchange ideas, share insights, and develop practical evidence-based solutions to address the complex challenges that Thailand is facing at the national, regional and global levels.