OAE has analyses outlook for Thai agricultural products

The Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) has analysed the outlook for Thai agricultural products in 2025. While several products show positive trends, others remain a concern.

Chantanon Wannakejohn, secretary general of the OAE, said the GDP for the agricultural sector in 2025 is projected to grow by 1.8-2.8%, valued between 698.55 billion and 705.41 billion baht. Key supporting factors include increased rainfall from the La Niña phenomenon, expected to persist until February. This will benefit dry-season crop cultivation, ensuring sufficient water for crop growth and subsequent planting cycles.

For rice, production is expected to rise thanks to adequate water availability for cultivation and favourable rice prices, motivating farmers to expand their planting areas for off-season crops. Favourable prices will further encourage farmers to utilise previously idle land for planting.

On the downside, a significant challenge for Thai rice exports is India's decision to resume exporting non-basmati white rice without export taxes, setting a minimum export price of US$490 per ton. This will force competitors like Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan to lower their prices to remain competitive.

Rubber production is expected to rise as most rubber trees currently tapped are at peak production age. Increased rainfall compared with last year has enhanced tree health, while farmers have improved monitoring and prevention of rubber leaf fall disease. 

Global demand for natural rubber is also anticipated to grow, driven by industries related to rubber and the expansion of the electric-vehicle (EV) sector. Additionally, international trade measures emphasising sustainable and eco-friendly materials are likely to boost the use of natural rubber as a substitute for synthetic rubber.
Cassava exports, including cassava chips, pellets and starch, are projected to decline compared with 2024. This is largely due to reduced demand from key importers, particularly China, which uses cassava for alcohol production. China's increased domestic production of animal-feed corn, a substitute for cassava, has further impacted cassava demand.

While cassava starch remains in demand in industries such as food, paper, beverages and textiles in China, Japan and Indonesia, growth may slow. Increased investment in cassava-starch factories in Laos could also affect Thailand’s exports of that product.
Palm-oil production is expected to rise, driven by favourable prices in 2022, which encouraged farmers to replace rubber plantations with oil palms. These new plantations will begin yielding crops in 2025. 

Domestic consumption of palm oil is projected to remain steady at 1.49 million tons, while demand for palm oil as biofuel is expected to drop to 0.89 million tons from 1.08 million tons in 2024. This decline is due to the Ministry of Energy maintaining the biodiesel (B100) blending ratio at no less than 5% (B5) to avoid increasing diesel production costs and placing a financial burden on consumers. Palm oil exports are projected to decline slightly, with an estimated 1.000 million tons exported in 2025, compared with 1.036 million tons in 2024.

Chickens are anticipated to see higher production levels due to increasing demand both domestically and internationally, in line with economic recovery. Stringent safety measures, disease prevention in poultry, and Thailand’s recognised quality standards have boosted confidence among trade partners. New export markets in Asia and the Middle East are expected to drive further growth.

Durian, including fresh fruit and products, are forecast to grow despite intensified competition. Strong international demand continues, but Thailand may face price and market-share challenges from competitors, particularly Vietnam. Farmers and exporters must prioritise quality production and export standards to maintain their market position.