Thai exports recover in first nine months of 2024

Thailand's exports in 2024 have shown a satisfactory recovery. For the first nine months of the year, total export value reached US$223.176 billion, marking 3.9% growth. Excluding oil, gold, and military-related products, exports grew by 4.2%. 

The Ministry of Commerce expects overall export growth of about 2% for the year, with the total export value projected to reach $290 billion.

However, imports have remained high. In the first nine months, Thailand's imports amounted to $229.1328 billion, a 5.5% increase, resulting in a trade deficit of $5.9568 billion, or nearly 200 billion baht.

It is notable that Thailand's import figures have continued to rise, especially in September, with imports valued at $25.5889 billion, a significant 9.9% growth, marking the fourth consecutive month of high growth.

According to Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Center (SCB EIC), the increase in imports is mainly due to high growth in raw materials and semi-finished goods (up 25.7%), capital goods (up 13.8%), and consumer goods (up 9.7%).

Meanwhile, imports of vehicles and transportation equipment continued to decline sharply, falling by -36.6% compared with -23.8% in the previous month, while fuel imports reversed to a contraction of -11.3%. 

Despite this, the customs-based trade balance recorded a surplus for the second consecutive month at $394.2 million, in contrast to the overall trade deficit of $5.9568 billion for the first three quarters of 2024.

Thailand's imports from various countries and economic regions have shown increases, with imports from Hong Kong up 104%, mainland China up 11.1%, CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar Vietnam) up 5.8%, and the United States up 3.3%. In contrast, imports from Japan decreased by 11.3%, Australia by 26.9%, and India by 7.1% this year.

SCB EIC projects that exports will grow by 2.6% this year and 2.8% in 2025. Export growth in the last two months exceeded SCB EIC and market expectations, partially driven by increased gold exports, reflecting global market prices, and an upcycle in electronics. 

As a result, Thailand's exports grew by 3.9% in the first three quarters of 2024 (customs-based data), and export growth in the final quarter is expected to continue thanks to the electronics upcycle and a low base effect. This suggests that export growth for the year may exceed the previous forecast of 2.6%, with SCB EIC currently revising its forecast.

Several key factors could impact Thailand’s exports, including:

Global economic slowdown
China's overcapacity
India’s rice export ban lifted
Natural disasters and weather volatility
Baht volatility