10 Business trends for 2025

1. Global Economic Overview in 2025
2025 will be a year of transition, with the Transitional force (slowing economy, declining inflation, and lower interest rates) outweighing the Trump force (inflation concerns, budget deficits, and high interest rates driven by US policies). This will result in US inflation dropping to 2.5%, while central banks worldwide are expected to reduce interest rates. The US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Thailand are anticipated to cut rates twice, four times, and three times, respectively.

2. AI and Technology Leading Growth in 2025
Global IT investment is projected to rise by 8% to $3.6 trillion. According to EY, 30% of US businesses will invest more than $10 million in AI, up from 16% in 2024. However, Gartner warns that 30% of AI projects may fail as regulatory oversight intensifies. In hardware, competition in the chip industry will escalate. Nvidia is expected to maintain its leadership in AI chips against competitors like Arm and Google. Meanwhile, countries are vying to attract chip manufacturing. TSMC will open its first US plant, and Micron will commence production in India.

3. Healthcare Sector in 2025
The healthcare sector will face challenges from an aging global population (65+), which will rise to 12% of the world’s population. Although healthcare demand will increase, global spending is expected to decrease to 10% of GDP, down from 11% during the COVID-19 period. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) forecasts global healthcare spending to reach $11 trillion, half of which will come from the US In terms of innovation, the World Health Organization (WHO) will focus on climate change responses. The pharmaceutical industry will see significant advances, including affordable weight-loss drugs, vaccines for mpox, avian flu, and COVID-19, as well as mRNA vaccines for cancer. Global pharmaceutical sales are expected to reach $1.7 trillion.

4. Energy Sector in 2025
Global energy consumption in 2025 is projected to increase by 2%, reaching a record high of 14.5 billion tons of oil equivalent, with fossil fuels accounting for 80% of the mix. This will result in carbon emissions rising 1.7 times compared to 1990 levels. Coal will remain the dominant fuel in Asia, particularly in India and Russia. In oil markets, OPEC+ will regulate production to maintain Brent crude prices between $75-77 per barrel.

Renewable energy is expected to make up 14% of the global supply, with wind and solar generating one-sixth of the world's electricity. Countries are expanding clean energy investments, including solar farms in India, mini-grids in Zambia, and geothermal plants in Texas. Thailand aims to raise its renewable energy share to 20%. Nuclear energy will regain prominence, particularly in Asia, while China is set to achieve its target of producing 200,000 tons of green hydrogen.

5. Automotive Sector in 2025
The global automotive sector is expected to grow by 2%, with electric vehicle (EV) sales surging nearly 25%, despite concerns about driving range and high prices. Norway aims to become the first country where all new cars sold are emission-free by 2025. More cities will introduce low-emission zones.

China will dominate the global EV market, accounting for half of sales. BYD plans to sell 1 million cars outside China through new plants in Brazil and Hungary, while VinFast targets India and Indonesia. Volkswagen and Tesla are working on lower-cost EVs. However, higher tariffs on EVs from China and stricter regulations will challenge the industry's expansion.

6. Tourism and Aviation Sector in 2025
Global tourism is expected to surpass 1.6 billion travelers, with Chinese outbound tourists exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels, accounting for 10% of all travelers. Thailand and Indonesia will benefit from relaxed visa policies. Asia's share of tourism spending will reach 37%, equal to Europe's, while Europe will continue to attract over half of international tourists, despite anti-overtourism protests. Indian tourists will grow by 17% to 29 million, with 70% traveling within Asia and spending an average of $1,400 per person, higher than the global average of $1,033.

7. Real Estate Sector in 2025
The global real estate market will benefit from falling interest rates, though business districts will remain quieter than pre-pandemic levels. Office leasing is improving as hybrid work models bring employees back 2-3 days a week. Retail in prime locations remains strong, while warehouse leasing slows due to declining online business. Mortgage rates are expected to decrease, but housing shortages will keep prices and rents high. In China, home prices are projected to drop 4%, while in the US, office building values will decline alongside rising bad debt. Globally, $2.1 trillion in real estate loans will mature, with three-quarters in the US.

8. Mining and Metals Sector in 2025
Green policies and construction expansion will drive higher metal prices, with EIU's base metal index expected to rise 7.5%, surpassing the 2022 record. Copper prices will benefit from demand for electric cables and batteries, while infrastructure investments will support steel, iron ore, aluminum, and zinc. Tin will grow with increasing electronic device consumption.

Gold and diamonds will remain attractive as safe-haven assets during economic uncertainty. Metals for EVs, such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium, will see slower growth due to moderated EV sales and experimentation with new battery technologies.

9. Telecommunications Sector in 2025
The robust growth of 5G will see users rise by 25% to 2.8 billion, with 5G smartphones comprising three-quarters of total sales. However, coverage will expand slowly in some regions, and broadband development remains sluggish in developing nations like Nigeria and India. International connectivity, reliant on undersea cables, faces risks from conflicts but could benefit from satellite internet services by OneWeb and Starlink if spectrum allocation proceeds as planned.

10. Transportation Sector in 2025
The transportation industry faces numerous challenges. Maritime shipping continues to be impacted by tensions in the Middle East, while operators must adapt to the EU's stricter pollution fees and tax-free trade regulations. Land transport is hindered by a shortage of replacement drivers for aging truck operators. Meanwhile, China plans to develop Hainan Island into a trade hub to rival Hong Kong, though container volumes remain significantly lower.

These are the 10 economic and business trends for 2025.

This article reflects the author's personal opinions and does not represent the views of their affiliated organization.

Piyasak Manason