Trump’s promised end to Ukraine war likely to benefit Thailand

One of the policies announced by Donald Trump, the presumptive 47th president of the United States, who is expected to take office on January 20, 2025, is to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

Trump has announced plans to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the world is watching closely to see if he can achieve what he promised. The details and conditions for ending the war are still to be seen.

Russia is an important trading partner for Thailand, and if the war comes to an end, it would likely benefit trade and investment between the two countries, which had been growing prior to the war. Before the war, trade and investment between Thailand and Russia showed positive growth.

According to data from the Thai Ministry of Commerce, Thailand-Russia trade in 2022 (before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 23, 2022) was valued at 64,556.54 million baht, with Thailand exports worth 20,288.05 million baht and imports 44,268.48 million baht, resulting in a trade deficit of 23,980.43 million baht.

In 2023, the second year of the Russia-Ukraine war, Thailand-Russia trade decreased by 18.47%, amounting to 52,631.21 million baht. Thailand’s exports increased by 40.10% to 28,423.82 million baht, while imports dropped by 45.32% to 24,207.39 million baht, leading to a trade surplus of 4,216.43 million baht.

In the first nine months of 2024, Thailand-Russia trade was valued at 42,548.45 million baht, a 15.12% increase. Thailand’s exports amounted to 21,699.67 million baht, up by 14.92%, and imports were 20,848.78 million baht, up by 15.33%. Thailand recorded a trade surplus of 850.89 million baht.

The top five export items from Thailand to Russia in the first nine months of 2024 were: rubber products (3,294.52 million baht, +22.68%), aircraft, spacecraft, and parts (1,858.47 million baht, -30.19%), machinery and machine parts (1,247.17 million baht, -36.94%), canned and processed seafood (1,057.54 million baht, +31.81%), and gems and jewellery (888.87 million baht, +2.86%).

The top five imports from Russia to Thailand were: fertilisers and pesticides (9,476.58 million baht, +68.11%), other metal ores, scrap metal, and products (2,224.37 million baht, -6.20%), chemicals (2,023.37 million baht, +139.10%), plants and plant products (1,863.20 million baht, +49.05%), and animals and animal products (1,110.13 million baht, +301.31%).

It is evident that trade between Thailand and Russia has begun to recover over nearly three years of the war. If the war with Ukraine ends, it would undoubtedly lead to further expansion in trade between the two countries.