Thailand’s economic growth forecast for 2024 rises to 2.7%
Stronger export performance and higher tourism revenue main drivers of economic growth, Finance Ministry finds
Deputy Finance Minister Paopoom Rojanasakul announced on Friday that the ministry has revised its economic growth forecast for this year to 2.7%, up from the previous estimate of 2.4%.
This revision is driven by three key factors:
Stronger export growth: Exports are doing better than expected, supported by a projected growth of 3.2% in key trading partners’ economies.
Higher tourism revenue: International tourist arrivals and spending is exceeding expectations thanks to effective government measures to kickstart the sector.
Increased government spending: The government is expected to spend more efficiently, with a continuous rise in spending towards the end of the fiscal year.
The services balance is expected to remain positive due to rising tourism, contributing to a project current account surplus of US$11 billion or 2.4% of the GDP.
However, these forecasts do not include the economic impact of the government’s 10,000-baht digital wallet scheme, which is projected to boost growth by 1.2-1.8%.
“The impact will depend on the source of funding, project conditions, participant numbers and spending behaviour,” Paopoom said.
Challenges such as global geopolitical conflicts, including tensions between Israel and Iran, US-China strategic competition, and disputes in the South China Sea, could adversely affect Thailand's economic growth. Additionally, global financial market volatility and domestic household debt issues may also impact future spending.
Key drivers for the rest of 2024 include:
Government spending: Accelerated investments and expenditures across all agencies.
Tourism revenue: Increased foreign tourist arrivals, particularly during the high season.
Investment projects: Fast-tracking approved projects and investment promotions aligned with the government's “Ignite Thailand” policy to turn Thailand into a global investment hub.
The Finance Ministry hosted the “Ignite Finance: Thailand's Vision for a Global Financial Hub” event, aiming to enhance Thailand’s global financial competitiveness and secure sustainable economic growth, positioning the country as a regional leader.
