NESDC sees limited, gradual growth in Thai economy this year

The NESDC report showed that the economy is expected to grow between 0.7 and 1.2 per cent, showing a recovery from the 6.1 per cent contraction last year. However, the new projection is a downward revision from the 1.5 to 2.5 per cent growth predicted earlier this year.

Economic growth for the rest of this year will likely be subjected to the following limitations and risks, namely:

• Uncertainty over a new wave of Covid-19 infections

• Fragile financial condition of both households and businesses amid high unemployment rates and worries over the resurgence of Covid-19

• Risks faced by export and manufacturing sectors affected by outbreaks in factories, coupled with constraints in the global value chain and international logistics, and

• Volatility in the global economic and financial situation.

Nevertheless, the Thai economy in 2021 is likely to recover gradually, thanks to the following key supporting factors:

• Recovery of the world economy and global trade

• Support from government spending and stimulus measures

• Improvement of income in the agricultural sector

• Low growth base for the economy in the latter half of 2020.

NESDC expects the value of exports, private consumption, private investment and public investment to rise by 16.3 per cent, 1.1 per cent, 4.7 per cent, and 8.7 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, headline inflation is expected to be in the range of 1 and 1.5 per cent, while the current account is leaning towards registering a deficit of 2 per cent of the gross domestic product.